Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.354283 25.644539 28.216846 31.354115 35.125644 39.579553 45.341687
2025-02-02 20.140419 23.119028 26.740613 31.590859 38.127172 46.988909 60.661615
2025-02-09 18.005676 21.356817 25.684957 31.939255 41.258076 55.706709 82.843444
2025-02-16 16.376670 19.912264 24.697561 32.055521 44.025394 65.141652 114.565397
2025-02-23 14.962788 18.524621 23.515923 31.568186 45.644587 73.513123 155.724573
2025-03-02 13.971332 17.576812 22.790205 31.586453 48.089438 85.049968 232.108526
2025-03-09 13.094245 16.682943 22.003683 31.318604 49.893199 96.598302 361.750895
2025-03-16 12.327188 15.867565 21.225621 30.901599 51.254189 108.367435 617.512958
2025-03-23 11.686985 15.180134 20.564263 30.565715 52.689581 122.131542 1363.418906
2025-03-30 11.150354 14.602996 20.014924 30.337794 54.317848 139.018374 7833.774615
2025-04-06 10.582975 13.935947 19.251013 29.573058 54.385810 150.172160 NaN
2025-04-13 10.431719 13.903001 19.544486 30.956182 60.695646 205.946825 NaN
2025-04-20 10.024691 13.440277 19.060767 30.669087 62.252964 240.382868 NaN
2025-04-27 9.715232 13.114730 18.789850 30.801300 65.239855 301.945772 NaN
2025-05-04 9.452993 12.848740 18.600840 31.086247 68.950695 402.771907 NaN
2025-05-11 9.186366 12.558822 18.342525 31.172663 72.088826 544.162063 NaN
2025-05-18 8.871430 12.171257 17.873544 30.695487 72.924134 670.936486 NaN
2025-05-25 8.638580 11.909305 17.620601 30.706837 75.837137 990.832357 NaN
2025-06-01 8.391637 11.611051 17.277250 30.448363 77.548432 1456.696797 NaN
2025-06-08 8.146027 11.303872 16.896781 30.049088 78.509023 2194.243785 NaN
2025-06-15 7.924825 11.029016 16.561959 29.727848 79.771819 4024.374492 NaN
2025-06-22 7.728303 10.788406 16.279336 29.509943 81.528084 13308.615698 NaN
2025-06-29 7.490850 10.467909 15.822141 28.779496 80.333280 30637.958560 NaN